Chuo Shinkansen Construction Update

Japan’s long-delayed Chuo Shinkansen maglev project has cleared a critical hurdle, with the last major obstacle to full construction finally showing signs of resolution — the outcome of nearly a decade of negotiations between Shizuoka Prefecture and Central Japan Railway (JR Central, also known as JR Tokai).

Shizuoka Prefecture’s expert panel has approved all 28 environmental conservation measures submitted by JR Central, including steps to protect water resources and biodiversity in the Southern Japanese Alps, as well as to protect water flow in the Oi River — the original flashpoint of the dispute. The decision opens the door to the start of construction in Shizuoka’s mountainous terrain, the sole remaining unbuilt section of the Tokyo–Nagoya corridor.

“A very big hurdle has been overcome,” said Shizuoka Vice Governor Sho Hiraki. “Construction could start before the end of the year.“

The Shizuoka section spans just 8.9 km (5.5 mi) of the total 294.5 km (183.0 mi) Tokyo–Nagoya route — a small stretch by distance, but one that has blocked progress since 2017, when the former governor first raised concerns about the risk of reduced water flow in the Oi River. A breakthrough only became possible after current Governor Yasutomo Suzuki, who took office in 2024, made approval conditional on JR Central fulfilling all 28 environmental measures — a bar that has now been cleared. Suzuki is expected to grant formal approval once the company completes the required legal procedures and public consultations.

An engineering challenge of historic scale

JR Central began construction on the Tokyo–Nagoya section back in 2014, with an original opening target of 2027. That date has long since been abandoned, and the line is now expected to open in the mid-2030s at the earliest.
The route is an engineering undertaking of remarkable scale. Tunnels account for 86% of the Tokyo–Nagoya section, making the line highly resistant to earthquake disruption — a significant resilience benefit alongside the existing Tokaido Shinkansen. The most challenging single structure is the Southern Alps Tunnel, approximately 25 km long and reaching a maximum depth of 1,400 metres below the surface, described as an unprecedented project in terms of both technology and cost management.

Those costs have risen sharply. The original construction budget for the full line stood at around ¥5.5 trillion (~$34.5 billion), but two revisions — in 2021 and 2025 — have pushed the figure to approximately ¥11 trillion (~$68.9 billion). The project draws on ¥3 trillion (~$18.8 billion) in government fiscal investment and loans, making scrutiny of its economic returns all the more pressing.

Questions remain beyond the tunnel

Broader social changes add further uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic entrenched remote working across Japan, while an accelerating decline in the birth rate and a rapidly ageing population raise questions about whether the passenger and revenue forecasts underpinning the project still hold.

Beyond Nagoya, the picture remains more distant. The onward extension to Osaka — a further 143.5 km (89.2 mi) — has not yet entered construction at all, leaving roughly a quarter of the full 438.0 km (272.2 mi) line yet to begin. When complete, the line aims to connect Shinagawa in Tokyo with Osaka in just 67 minutes, linking Japan’s three major metropolitan areas and potentially transforming patterns of work and daily life across the country.

For now, attention turns to Shizuoka. JR Central has said it wants to begin work in the prefecture as soon as possible, and with all 28 conditions now satisfied at committee level, the remaining steps are procedural rather than substantive. After years of stalemate, the maglev’s path through the mountains may finally be clear — though the scale of what lies ahead, in engineering, in cost, and in a changing society, means the hard work is only just beginning.